Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.409252 0.472527 0.541431 0.621915 0.713223 0.813463 0.931716
2025-09-07 0.317759 0.408123 0.516201 0.654392 0.825732 1.030487 1.292941
2025-09-14 0.246562 0.343275 0.467383 0.637052 0.861504 1.146602 1.534235
2025-09-21 0.198655 0.295996 0.428476 0.619887 0.886870 1.243135 1.750951
2025-09-28 0.164592 0.260462 0.397881 0.606256 0.910526 1.334090 1.962589
2025-10-05 0.145939 0.243515 0.389871 0.621304 0.972843 1.480220 2.259212
2025-10-12 0.134604 0.235571 0.393290 0.652161 1.059308 1.665859 2.625224
2025-10-19 0.121901 0.223314 0.387988 0.667994 1.123054 1.821383 2.956918
2025-10-26 0.109357 0.209360 0.377893 0.674279 1.171157 1.955268 3.263830
2025-11-02 0.097363 0.194551 0.364337 0.672755 1.205384 2.068540 3.544854
2025-11-09 0.085845 0.178916 0.347334 0.663072 1.224245 2.157227 3.791031
2025-11-16 0.076045 0.165100 0.331823 0.653992 1.242531 2.245092 4.040336
2025-11-23 0.065638 0.148819 0.310242 0.632254 1.237620 2.295249 4.233356
2025-11-30 0.062918 0.147889 0.317762 0.665629 1.335151 2.529237 4.758864
2025-12-07 0.055002 0.134777 0.299810 0.648046 1.336446 2.593230 4.990193
2025-12-14 0.048160 0.122954 0.282960 0.630611 1.335934 2.653025 5.216796
2025-12-21 0.042521 0.112986 0.268717 0.616765 1.340722 2.722117 5.463840
2025-12-28 0.039895 0.109745 0.268511 0.632051 1.404526 2.905846 5.935167
2026-01-04 0.038684 0.109790 0.275541 0.663395 1.503336 3.162648 6.560037
2026-01-11 0.036455 0.106934 0.275639 0.679478 1.571541 3.363999 7.090045
2026-01-18 0.033789 0.102534 0.271621 0.685862 1.619518 3.528090 7.556694
2026-01-25 0.030911 0.097108 0.264493 0.684314 1.649982 3.658438 7.963484
2026-02-01 0.027869 0.090738 0.254291 0.674478 1.661222 3.749882 8.296995